EU Energy Commissioner Warns Europe Faces Difficult Summer of Fuel Shortages Even if Iran War Ends Today

April 22, 2026  |  Energy Crisis  |  Europe  |  Oil & Gas  |  Dnn247.com

The European Union’s Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has delivered a blunt warning to European governments and consumers: even in the best-case scenario, the continent faces a difficult summer of fuel shortages and energy price pressures that will not quickly resolve, regardless of how the Iran conflict ends. Speaking at an energy security conference in Madrid on Tuesday, Jorgensen said that even if the war ended today and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopened, it would take more than two years to restore Middle East energy production to pre-conflict levels.

European gas storage entered 2026 at just 46 billion cubic meters, compared to 60 billion cubic meters in 2025 and 77 billion in 2024, leaving the continent with critically thin buffers heading into the crisis. Dutch TTF gas benchmark prices have nearly doubled to over 60 euros per megawatt-hour since March, and natural gas prices across Europe have surged 98 percent since the conflict began in late February.

The ECB has warned that a prolonged conflict risks pushing major energy-dependent economies, including Germany and Italy, into technical recession by the end of 2026. The EU’s current growth forecast stands at just 1.3 percent for the year. In a severe scenario involving persistent supply disruption and tightening financial conditions, that figure could fall into contraction territory.

Chemical and steel manufacturers across the UK and the European Union have already imposed surcharges of up to 30 percent on their products to offset surging electricity and feedstock costs. Economists at Germany’s Ifo Institute have identified Germany and the Netherlands as carrying the highest recession risk among EU member states.

EU officials have urged member states to accelerate gas storage refilling operations and increase investment in renewable energy infrastructure to reduce long-term structural dependence on imported fossil fuels. The European Commission has so far rejected calls for a windfall tax on oil and gas companies, a measure it applied during the 2022 Ukraine energy crisis.

With peace talks between Washington and Tehran currently stalled and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports still in force, European energy ministers face the prospect of managing the crisis through the summer without any certainty of relief.